Key fingerprint 9EF0 C41A FBA5 64AA 650A 0259 9C6D CD17 283E 454C

-----BEGIN PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK-----
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=5a6T
-----END PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK-----

		

Contact

If you need help using Tor you can contact WikiLeaks for assistance in setting it up using our simple webchat available at: https://wikileaks.org/talk

If you can use Tor, but need to contact WikiLeaks for other reasons use our secured webchat available at http://wlchatc3pjwpli5r.onion

We recommend contacting us over Tor if you can.

Tor

Tor is an encrypted anonymising network that makes it harder to intercept internet communications, or see where communications are coming from or going to.

In order to use the WikiLeaks public submission system as detailed above you can download the Tor Browser Bundle, which is a Firefox-like browser available for Windows, Mac OS X and GNU/Linux and pre-configured to connect using the anonymising system Tor.

Tails

If you are at high risk and you have the capacity to do so, you can also access the submission system through a secure operating system called Tails. Tails is an operating system launched from a USB stick or a DVD that aim to leaves no traces when the computer is shut down after use and automatically routes your internet traffic through Tor. Tails will require you to have either a USB stick or a DVD at least 4GB big and a laptop or desktop computer.

Tips

Our submission system works hard to preserve your anonymity, but we recommend you also take some of your own precautions. Please review these basic guidelines.

1. Contact us if you have specific problems

If you have a very large submission, or a submission with a complex format, or are a high-risk source, please contact us. In our experience it is always possible to find a custom solution for even the most seemingly difficult situations.

2. What computer to use

If the computer you are uploading from could subsequently be audited in an investigation, consider using a computer that is not easily tied to you. Technical users can also use Tails to help ensure you do not leave any records of your submission on the computer.

3. Do not talk about your submission to others

If you have any issues talk to WikiLeaks. We are the global experts in source protection – it is a complex field. Even those who mean well often do not have the experience or expertise to advise properly. This includes other media organisations.

After

1. Do not talk about your submission to others

If you have any issues talk to WikiLeaks. We are the global experts in source protection – it is a complex field. Even those who mean well often do not have the experience or expertise to advise properly. This includes other media organisations.

2. Act normal

If you are a high-risk source, avoid saying anything or doing anything after submitting which might promote suspicion. In particular, you should try to stick to your normal routine and behaviour.

3. Remove traces of your submission

If you are a high-risk source and the computer you prepared your submission on, or uploaded it from, could subsequently be audited in an investigation, we recommend that you format and dispose of the computer hard drive and any other storage media you used.

In particular, hard drives retain data after formatting which may be visible to a digital forensics team and flash media (USB sticks, memory cards and SSD drives) retain data even after a secure erasure. If you used flash media to store sensitive data, it is important to destroy the media.

If you do this and are a high-risk source you should make sure there are no traces of the clean-up, since such traces themselves may draw suspicion.

4. If you face legal action

If a legal action is brought against you as a result of your submission, there are organisations that may help you. The Courage Foundation is an international organisation dedicated to the protection of journalistic sources. You can find more details at https://www.couragefound.org.

WikiLeaks publishes documents of political or historical importance that are censored or otherwise suppressed. We specialise in strategic global publishing and large archives.

The following is the address of our secure site where you can anonymously upload your documents to WikiLeaks editors. You can only access this submissions system through Tor. (See our Tor tab for more information.) We also advise you to read our tips for sources before submitting.

http://ibfckmpsmylhbfovflajicjgldsqpc75k5w454irzwlh7qifgglncbad.onion

If you cannot use Tor, or your submission is very large, or you have specific requirements, WikiLeaks provides several alternative methods. Contact us to discuss how to proceed.

WikiLeaks
Press release About PlusD
 
Content
Show Headers
CLASSIFIED BY: Margaret Scobey, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 1. (C) Key Points: -- Thousands of supporters greeted former IAEA Chairman Mohammed El Baradei upon his return to Cairo. Beleaguered leaders of the opposition seem relieved at their ability to muster a show of support for El Baradei and enthusiastic about his potential impact. -- El Baradei is seen as an "independent" and viable alternative to a corrupt regime and an ineffectual opposition. However, the mainstream opposition appears reluctant to claim him as their own "consensus candidate." --In a television interview February 21, El Baradei criticized GOE corruption, election fraud, lack of political reform and failure to successfully address poverty and illiteracy. -- El Baradei met with Arab League Secretary Amre Moussa on February 22 and will begin to meet with political activists on February 23." -- NDP reaction and government media reaction focused on El Baradei's lack of political experience and doubts over his level of commitment. Opinion makers in the independent media also see El Baradei as an outsider and appear wary to offer unqualified support. 2. (C) Comment: Mohammed El Baradei's presence on the political scene remains more notable than his message, which echoes existing opposition demands. Yet El Baradei's sober and broad-ranging criticism of President Mubarak's regime, buttressed by his credentials as a Nobel Prize winner and former IAEA chairman, distinguished his message from that of largely ineffective opposition leaders. Despite his reluctance to declare himself a candidate, he appears, for now, to have captured the imagination of some section of the secular elite that wants democracy but is wary of the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood. The significant challenge ahead is mustering credibility on the Egyptian "street." The NDP has thus far stepped back from previous attempts to demonize El, which had backfired. The real political costs to the regime of embracing El Baradei are low, but President Mubarak is unlikely to receive the returning "national hero," his criticism a personal affront. End Comment. --------------------------------- An Enthusiastic Welcome and Media Reaction -------------------------------- 3. (SBU) On February 19, former IAEA Chairman Mohammed El Baradei arrived at Cairo airport to mark his return to Egypt. According to several Embassy contacts and staff present at the airport "thousands" of supporters and activists greeted El Baradei warmly at the airport. El Baradei's return was also marked by a boost in the number of his Facebook fans -- now more than seventy thousand -- and a flurry of reporting on his return in the independent media. (Note: The El Baradei for president Facebook page is run by poet Abdel Rahman Yousef El Qaradawi, son of well known Egyptian Sunni Sheikh and TV personality Yousef El Qaradawi. End Note.) On the opinion pages, journalists suggested that while El Baradei's welcome represented a hunger for political life previously repressed, they questioned the value of vague promises of change and El Baradei's real commitment to the process. Government newspapers largely downplayed the importance of El Baradei's return, noting President Mubarak had extended to El Baradei the use of the airport's VIP lounge and confirmation that security services would be present to keep the peace. Opinion pieces in the CAIRO 00000237 002 OF 004 government owned or affiliated newspapers noted his "European style" of "brief and to the point answers," suggesting that El Baradei remained out of touch with Egyptians and unprepared for politics in Egypt. Noting that he has rejected alignment with any of Egypt's political parties they also suggest El Baradei arrived without a real "political program." ------------------------------ Activists Generally Optimistic ------------------------------ 4. (C) "April 6" leader Ahmed Salah, who was at the airport, told us he was "proud" his movement succeeded in helping to organize the group of supporters, which he estimated at around 3,000. Salah said that "April 6" leader Ahmed Maher and activist Amr Ali, who were detained by police February 17-18 (ref A), also participated in the greeting. Despite suggestions in the press that GOE security would maintain tight order and make arrests if necessary, Salah confirmed press reports of a limited security presence at the airport, saying the police "withdrew completely" from the airport. Salah acknowledged that the lack of police made the arrival somewhat chaotic, with supporters and journalists jostling each other to draw close to El Baradei. El Baradei himself later confirmed in a media interview that he had decided not to stop and speak to the crowd because of the limited security presence, fearing people would be hurt. 5. (C) Kifaya leader George Is'haq, himself over 60, told us he had been pleasantly surprised that those on hand to greet El Baradei belonged to the "younger generation," but said others of his generation were present. Taking credit for efforts to get people to come to the airport, he noted that El Baradei's welcome marked a return to the kind of activism Kifaya had not been able to muster since 2006. This he said was the first time they were able to mobilize people without the help or presence of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). (Note: Individual members of the MB had been cooperating with Kifaya, "April 6" and others in several campaigns focused on drawing support before the 2010 parliamentary and 2011 presidential elections, such as the Campaign for Free Elections and the Campaign Against Succession. The MB also participated in Kifaya's pro-judge rallies during the 2005 elections. End Note.) Is'haq suggested El Baradei's return fueled an optimism that had "revived" people's spirits. Political commentator, Cairo University professor and head of the Ayman Nour-founded Coalition Against Succession Hassan Nafaa told Al Jazeera English urged public pressure on the GOE to enact the constitutional reforms outlined by El Baradei and said that Egypt is now "witnessing a new wave of political mobilization." 6. (C) Civil society activist and Director of the Arab Center for the Independence of the Judiciary and Legal Profession Nasser Amin said El Baradei represents a clean slate candidate, someone both untainted by possible collusion with the regime -- like other members of the opposition -- and untouched by accusations of wrong doing -- like 2005 presidential candidate Ayman Nour. Commenting in the independent press, novelist and now frequent political commentator Alaa Al Aswani called enthusiasm about El Baradei evidence of an Egyptian desire for change, but warned that he should not be seen as a "savior." ----------------------------- El Baradei and the Opposition ----------------------------- 7. (C) Mainstream opposition parties which regularly meet as what is known in Egypt as the "opposition coalition" (Al Wafd, the Democratic Front Party (DFP), Taggamou and the Nasserist Party) have not been able to reach consensus on El Baradei as a democratic activist or candidate. Only DFP leader Osama Al Ghazali Harb has publically expressed enthusiasm about the impact of El Baradei's CAIRO 00000237 003 OF 004 return to Cairo. Harb told us the turnout at the airport was a sign of a "new political momentum" that would take "competition with the government to a new level." Harb called El Baradei the right man at the right time, but underscored that his core message was the same as the long-standing demands from the opposition. He called El Baradei an "international heavyweight" untouchable by government smear campaigns. Press reports indicate that Harb is the only member of the four party coalition that supports El Baradei as a candidate. However, there appears to be some internal debate within the Wafd party. Wafd party members from Gharbiyya part of the group Wafdists Against Succession (not sanctioned by the party) were present at the airport to receive El Baradei. That group's leader told the Egyptian daily El Shorouk that he and Wafd leaders Honorary President Mostafa El Taweel and VP Fouad Badrawy intend to seek their own meeting with El Baradei. 8. (C) Al Ghad Party Vice President Wael Nawara told PolOff that he and others in the party welcomed El Baradei's political activism in Egypt. Nawara added he would have liked to greet El Baradei at the airport, but was busy working to resolve internal party conflict after Ayman Nour's announcement on February 15 that he had been selected by Al Ghad as its presidential candidate. Some in the party, including its president Ehab El Khouly, publically criticized this move as pre-empting Al Ghad's ability to support an opposition "consensus candidate" like El Baradei. Nour's own comments about El Baradei have vacillated between statements of support and suggestions that he is only a "virtual candidate." Fellow Ghad party VP Gameela Ismail, Nour's estranged wife, was on hand to greet El Baradei and told the media she saw no contradiction in her support for El Baradei. Ismail said she would stand behind coordinated opposition support for one presidential candidate whether EL Baradei or Nour. 9. (C) El Baradei will meet on February 23 with Harb, Is'haq, Hassan Nafaa, and Judge Mahmoud Al Khodairy (former head of the Alexandria Judges club and leader of the Coalition for Free Elections) and other political activists. Press reports indicate that Dr. Yehia El Gamal, well-known constitutional scholar and co-founder of the Democratic Front Party (DFP), will also ask El Baradei to join a group of scholars who seek to draft an alternative constitution for Egypt. (Note: El Gamal left the DFP after a clash with current President and co-founder Osama Al Ghazali Harb. End Note.) ---------------- In His Own Words ---------------- 10. (C) In his first public appearance since his return, Sunday, February 21, El Baradei took part in a three hour interview on Egyptian Satellite Channel Dream TV's program ten o'clock hosted by Mona El Shazli. Taking questions from callers El Baradei reiterated his previous statements that he never intended to run in the 2011 presidential elections but said he would run against President Mubarak if needed constitutional changes were made and it were in Egypt's interest to do so. El Baradei reiterated his call for constitutional reforms, particularly reform of Article 76 which governs the selection of presidential candidates and which many believe was tailor made for presidential son Gamal Mubarak, and Article 88 which does not proscribe term limits. (Note: El Baradei has said he will not join a party; one of the criteria for candidacy is senior membership in a party with at least one representative in parliament, but he has not ruled out running as an independent which would require the endorsement of 250 members of parliament and the local councils, likely impossible because both institutions are dominated by members of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). End Note) El Baradei also criticized widespread election fraud in 2005 and criticized as "conspiracy theory" that any other country (i.e., the U.S.) is capable of selecting the president of another. El Baradei criticized the current regime, specifically President Mubarak, for leadership that has led to a corrupt state characterized by a climate of fear that was imposed by the security services. He cited widespread corruption, the failure to enact reforms to address the country's high poverty and illiteracy rates, inability to address sectarian tensions, and limited space for practice of political rights as the CAIRO 00000237 004 OF 004 current regime's legacy. ------------ NDP Reaction ------------ 11. (C) NDP reaction has been muted. NDP MP and Political Science Professor Gehad Ouda called in a comment during the El Baradei television appearance and said El Baradei does not realize the difficulty of the situation in Egypt, suggesting his criticisms were off the mark as there are different types of democracy that might be applied. The evening following El Baradei's appearance on her show, TV host Mona El Shazli reportedly told her audience that she had received calls from the public accusing her of a pro-NDP bias and calls from NDP members angry that she had given El Baradei three hours of air time. Dean of the Cairo University Faculty of Economics and Political Science and member of the ruling NDP's Policies Committee Alia Al Mahdy, told PolOff she remains close to her predecessor Mona El Baradei (Mohammed El Baradei's sister) and believes El Baradei intends to press for change but is unlikely to actually run for president. She said that she in others in the NDP "respect" El Baradei but remain loyal to President Mubarak. She added that El Baradei's long absence from Egypt does not mean that he does not understand Egypt well enough to run but that Egyptians do not know him well enough to vote for him. ------------------- Meeting Amre Moussa ------------------- 12. (SBU) In his first public meeting following his arrival, El Baradei met with Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa whom he called a "personal friend." The meeting was reported by the independent media as having focused on the "future of Egypt." El Baradei gave no formal comment to the media after the meeting but Amre Moussa reportedly said that all Egyptians were "aspiring for change," calling it their right to do so. SCOBEY

Raw content
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 000237 SIPDIS FOR D (L), NEA AND DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 2035/02/23 TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG SUBJECT: El Baradei Returns to Cairo REF: 10 CAIRO 215 CLASSIFIED BY: Margaret Scobey, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D) 1. (C) Key Points: -- Thousands of supporters greeted former IAEA Chairman Mohammed El Baradei upon his return to Cairo. Beleaguered leaders of the opposition seem relieved at their ability to muster a show of support for El Baradei and enthusiastic about his potential impact. -- El Baradei is seen as an "independent" and viable alternative to a corrupt regime and an ineffectual opposition. However, the mainstream opposition appears reluctant to claim him as their own "consensus candidate." --In a television interview February 21, El Baradei criticized GOE corruption, election fraud, lack of political reform and failure to successfully address poverty and illiteracy. -- El Baradei met with Arab League Secretary Amre Moussa on February 22 and will begin to meet with political activists on February 23." -- NDP reaction and government media reaction focused on El Baradei's lack of political experience and doubts over his level of commitment. Opinion makers in the independent media also see El Baradei as an outsider and appear wary to offer unqualified support. 2. (C) Comment: Mohammed El Baradei's presence on the political scene remains more notable than his message, which echoes existing opposition demands. Yet El Baradei's sober and broad-ranging criticism of President Mubarak's regime, buttressed by his credentials as a Nobel Prize winner and former IAEA chairman, distinguished his message from that of largely ineffective opposition leaders. Despite his reluctance to declare himself a candidate, he appears, for now, to have captured the imagination of some section of the secular elite that wants democracy but is wary of the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood. The significant challenge ahead is mustering credibility on the Egyptian "street." The NDP has thus far stepped back from previous attempts to demonize El, which had backfired. The real political costs to the regime of embracing El Baradei are low, but President Mubarak is unlikely to receive the returning "national hero," his criticism a personal affront. End Comment. --------------------------------- An Enthusiastic Welcome and Media Reaction -------------------------------- 3. (SBU) On February 19, former IAEA Chairman Mohammed El Baradei arrived at Cairo airport to mark his return to Egypt. According to several Embassy contacts and staff present at the airport "thousands" of supporters and activists greeted El Baradei warmly at the airport. El Baradei's return was also marked by a boost in the number of his Facebook fans -- now more than seventy thousand -- and a flurry of reporting on his return in the independent media. (Note: The El Baradei for president Facebook page is run by poet Abdel Rahman Yousef El Qaradawi, son of well known Egyptian Sunni Sheikh and TV personality Yousef El Qaradawi. End Note.) On the opinion pages, journalists suggested that while El Baradei's welcome represented a hunger for political life previously repressed, they questioned the value of vague promises of change and El Baradei's real commitment to the process. Government newspapers largely downplayed the importance of El Baradei's return, noting President Mubarak had extended to El Baradei the use of the airport's VIP lounge and confirmation that security services would be present to keep the peace. Opinion pieces in the CAIRO 00000237 002 OF 004 government owned or affiliated newspapers noted his "European style" of "brief and to the point answers," suggesting that El Baradei remained out of touch with Egyptians and unprepared for politics in Egypt. Noting that he has rejected alignment with any of Egypt's political parties they also suggest El Baradei arrived without a real "political program." ------------------------------ Activists Generally Optimistic ------------------------------ 4. (C) "April 6" leader Ahmed Salah, who was at the airport, told us he was "proud" his movement succeeded in helping to organize the group of supporters, which he estimated at around 3,000. Salah said that "April 6" leader Ahmed Maher and activist Amr Ali, who were detained by police February 17-18 (ref A), also participated in the greeting. Despite suggestions in the press that GOE security would maintain tight order and make arrests if necessary, Salah confirmed press reports of a limited security presence at the airport, saying the police "withdrew completely" from the airport. Salah acknowledged that the lack of police made the arrival somewhat chaotic, with supporters and journalists jostling each other to draw close to El Baradei. El Baradei himself later confirmed in a media interview that he had decided not to stop and speak to the crowd because of the limited security presence, fearing people would be hurt. 5. (C) Kifaya leader George Is'haq, himself over 60, told us he had been pleasantly surprised that those on hand to greet El Baradei belonged to the "younger generation," but said others of his generation were present. Taking credit for efforts to get people to come to the airport, he noted that El Baradei's welcome marked a return to the kind of activism Kifaya had not been able to muster since 2006. This he said was the first time they were able to mobilize people without the help or presence of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). (Note: Individual members of the MB had been cooperating with Kifaya, "April 6" and others in several campaigns focused on drawing support before the 2010 parliamentary and 2011 presidential elections, such as the Campaign for Free Elections and the Campaign Against Succession. The MB also participated in Kifaya's pro-judge rallies during the 2005 elections. End Note.) Is'haq suggested El Baradei's return fueled an optimism that had "revived" people's spirits. Political commentator, Cairo University professor and head of the Ayman Nour-founded Coalition Against Succession Hassan Nafaa told Al Jazeera English urged public pressure on the GOE to enact the constitutional reforms outlined by El Baradei and said that Egypt is now "witnessing a new wave of political mobilization." 6. (C) Civil society activist and Director of the Arab Center for the Independence of the Judiciary and Legal Profession Nasser Amin said El Baradei represents a clean slate candidate, someone both untainted by possible collusion with the regime -- like other members of the opposition -- and untouched by accusations of wrong doing -- like 2005 presidential candidate Ayman Nour. Commenting in the independent press, novelist and now frequent political commentator Alaa Al Aswani called enthusiasm about El Baradei evidence of an Egyptian desire for change, but warned that he should not be seen as a "savior." ----------------------------- El Baradei and the Opposition ----------------------------- 7. (C) Mainstream opposition parties which regularly meet as what is known in Egypt as the "opposition coalition" (Al Wafd, the Democratic Front Party (DFP), Taggamou and the Nasserist Party) have not been able to reach consensus on El Baradei as a democratic activist or candidate. Only DFP leader Osama Al Ghazali Harb has publically expressed enthusiasm about the impact of El Baradei's CAIRO 00000237 003 OF 004 return to Cairo. Harb told us the turnout at the airport was a sign of a "new political momentum" that would take "competition with the government to a new level." Harb called El Baradei the right man at the right time, but underscored that his core message was the same as the long-standing demands from the opposition. He called El Baradei an "international heavyweight" untouchable by government smear campaigns. Press reports indicate that Harb is the only member of the four party coalition that supports El Baradei as a candidate. However, there appears to be some internal debate within the Wafd party. Wafd party members from Gharbiyya part of the group Wafdists Against Succession (not sanctioned by the party) were present at the airport to receive El Baradei. That group's leader told the Egyptian daily El Shorouk that he and Wafd leaders Honorary President Mostafa El Taweel and VP Fouad Badrawy intend to seek their own meeting with El Baradei. 8. (C) Al Ghad Party Vice President Wael Nawara told PolOff that he and others in the party welcomed El Baradei's political activism in Egypt. Nawara added he would have liked to greet El Baradei at the airport, but was busy working to resolve internal party conflict after Ayman Nour's announcement on February 15 that he had been selected by Al Ghad as its presidential candidate. Some in the party, including its president Ehab El Khouly, publically criticized this move as pre-empting Al Ghad's ability to support an opposition "consensus candidate" like El Baradei. Nour's own comments about El Baradei have vacillated between statements of support and suggestions that he is only a "virtual candidate." Fellow Ghad party VP Gameela Ismail, Nour's estranged wife, was on hand to greet El Baradei and told the media she saw no contradiction in her support for El Baradei. Ismail said she would stand behind coordinated opposition support for one presidential candidate whether EL Baradei or Nour. 9. (C) El Baradei will meet on February 23 with Harb, Is'haq, Hassan Nafaa, and Judge Mahmoud Al Khodairy (former head of the Alexandria Judges club and leader of the Coalition for Free Elections) and other political activists. Press reports indicate that Dr. Yehia El Gamal, well-known constitutional scholar and co-founder of the Democratic Front Party (DFP), will also ask El Baradei to join a group of scholars who seek to draft an alternative constitution for Egypt. (Note: El Gamal left the DFP after a clash with current President and co-founder Osama Al Ghazali Harb. End Note.) ---------------- In His Own Words ---------------- 10. (C) In his first public appearance since his return, Sunday, February 21, El Baradei took part in a three hour interview on Egyptian Satellite Channel Dream TV's program ten o'clock hosted by Mona El Shazli. Taking questions from callers El Baradei reiterated his previous statements that he never intended to run in the 2011 presidential elections but said he would run against President Mubarak if needed constitutional changes were made and it were in Egypt's interest to do so. El Baradei reiterated his call for constitutional reforms, particularly reform of Article 76 which governs the selection of presidential candidates and which many believe was tailor made for presidential son Gamal Mubarak, and Article 88 which does not proscribe term limits. (Note: El Baradei has said he will not join a party; one of the criteria for candidacy is senior membership in a party with at least one representative in parliament, but he has not ruled out running as an independent which would require the endorsement of 250 members of parliament and the local councils, likely impossible because both institutions are dominated by members of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). End Note) El Baradei also criticized widespread election fraud in 2005 and criticized as "conspiracy theory" that any other country (i.e., the U.S.) is capable of selecting the president of another. El Baradei criticized the current regime, specifically President Mubarak, for leadership that has led to a corrupt state characterized by a climate of fear that was imposed by the security services. He cited widespread corruption, the failure to enact reforms to address the country's high poverty and illiteracy rates, inability to address sectarian tensions, and limited space for practice of political rights as the CAIRO 00000237 004 OF 004 current regime's legacy. ------------ NDP Reaction ------------ 11. (C) NDP reaction has been muted. NDP MP and Political Science Professor Gehad Ouda called in a comment during the El Baradei television appearance and said El Baradei does not realize the difficulty of the situation in Egypt, suggesting his criticisms were off the mark as there are different types of democracy that might be applied. The evening following El Baradei's appearance on her show, TV host Mona El Shazli reportedly told her audience that she had received calls from the public accusing her of a pro-NDP bias and calls from NDP members angry that she had given El Baradei three hours of air time. Dean of the Cairo University Faculty of Economics and Political Science and member of the ruling NDP's Policies Committee Alia Al Mahdy, told PolOff she remains close to her predecessor Mona El Baradei (Mohammed El Baradei's sister) and believes El Baradei intends to press for change but is unlikely to actually run for president. She said that she in others in the NDP "respect" El Baradei but remain loyal to President Mubarak. She added that El Baradei's long absence from Egypt does not mean that he does not understand Egypt well enough to run but that Egyptians do not know him well enough to vote for him. ------------------- Meeting Amre Moussa ------------------- 12. (SBU) In his first public meeting following his arrival, El Baradei met with Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa whom he called a "personal friend." The meeting was reported by the independent media as having focused on the "future of Egypt." El Baradei gave no formal comment to the media after the meeting but Amre Moussa reportedly said that all Egyptians were "aspiring for change," calling it their right to do so. SCOBEY
Metadata
VZCZCXRO0921 RR RUEHROV DE RUEHEG #0237/01 0541343 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 231342Z FEB 10 FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0363 INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
Print

You can use this tool to generate a print-friendly PDF of the document 10CAIRO237_a.





Share

The formal reference of this document is 10CAIRO237_a, please use it for anything written about this document. This will permit you and others to search for it.


Submit this story


References to this document in other cables References in this document to other cables
10CAIRO215

If the reference is ambiguous all possibilities are listed.

Help Expand The Public Library of US Diplomacy

Your role is important:
WikiLeaks maintains its robust independence through your contributions.

Please see
https://shop.wikileaks.org/donate to learn about all ways to donate.


e-Highlighter

Click to send permalink to address bar, or right-click to copy permalink.

Tweet these highlights

Un-highlight all Un-highlight selectionu Highlight selectionh

XHelp Expand The Public
Library of US Diplomacy

Your role is important:
WikiLeaks maintains its robust independence through your contributions.

Please see
https://shop.wikileaks.org/donate to learn about all ways to donate.