C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 LONDON 001991
NOFORN
SIPDIS
STATE FOR EUR/WE, NSC FOR BRADLEY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, UK
SUBJECT: (C/NF) WHO WOULD REPLACE GORDON BROWN AS UK PRIME
MINISTER - IF HE GOES?
REF: A. LONDON 1939
B. LONDON 1704
Classified By: Ambassador Robert H. Tuttle, reasons 1.4 b, d.
1. (C/NF) Summary. As Gordon Brown lurches from political
disaster to disaster, Westminster is abuzz with speculation
about whether he will be replaced as Prime Minister and
Labour Party leader, and, if so, by whom. Right now, Foreign
Secretary David Miliband and Justice Secretary Jack Straw are
the two most frequently mentioned, and likely, successors --
Miliband as the "Labour David Cameron" to represent the
Blairite wing of the party or Straw as a Labour elder
statesman to bind the Party together. Other credible names
in circulation, in Post's view, are Brown confidante
Secretary of State for Children and Schools Ed Balls, House
of Commons Labour Leader Harriet Harman, Secretary of State
for Work and Pensions James Purnell, and Health Secretary
Alan Johnston. These would-be successors are a diverse
group, but they all have one thing in common: unless Brown
steps down voluntarily, which is highly unlikely, one of them
will have to mount a public challenge to Brown, and none of
the candidates has so far been willing to wield the knife -
or at least not yet. End summary.
Talk of Ousting Brown Reaching Fever Pitch
------------------------------------------
2. (C/NF) A terrible by-election defeat in Scotland on July
23, in which a formerly rock-solid Labour seat with a 13,000
majority fell to the Scottish National Party (Ref A), has
left the Labour Party reeling and fueled fears among MPs that
Brown's leadership of the party, and his premiership, may now
be beyond repair. For the first time in Labour's eleven-year
reign, Labour MPs are experiencing what it is to be truly
unpopular and fear they are facing meltdown at the next
election, which must be held no later than June 2010.
According to a July 28 YouGov poll, if a general election
were called now, the Tories would receive 46 percent of the
vote, while Labour would take just 26 percent and the Liberal
Democrat Party 17 percent; 74 percent of respondent said they
were dissatisfied with Brown's performance as PM. In this
febrile atmosphere, Westminster is buzzing with news that
dissident MPs are canvassing their colleagues to find a new
leader, while at the same time Cabinet ministers are lining
up to warn MPs to stop plotting and unite behind Brown (Ref
A). While rumors have been afloat for several months, our
contacts tell us now that those considering getting rid of
Brown are no longer confined to a small rump of bitter
ex-Ministers, such as Charles Clark (Ref B). With no sign
yet that Brown has a clear plan to turn the party's woes
around, commentators wonder if he can hold out until 2010,
and are already turning their attention to who might replace
him.
How Would It Happen?
--------------------
3. (C/NF) There are two ways to oust Brown. First, he could
step down on his own, perhaps at the behest of a group of
close advisors and party elders. We judge this possibility
to be extremely unlikely; Brown has wanted Downing Street for
too long to go quietly - a point London Mayor Boris Johnson,
a Conservative, made in a widely-read op-ed piece earlier
this week. Second, another candidate for party leader could
force a leadership election by identifying him- or herself
publicly and producing the names of 20 percent of sitting MPs
(70 of 346 Labour MPs) who support his/her candidacy. Labour
would then hold an election at its party conference for a new
leader, in which Brown could conceivably run himself to
regain the leadership. In the event of a leadership election,
one-third of the vote would be allocated to MPs; one-third to
Labour Party members; and one-third to the trade unions.
Many MPs have told us that, regardless of the scenario, they
candidly hope a change in leadership is still a long way off.
They acknowledge - as Labour Deputy Whip Nick Brown did to
us just days after the Glasgow election -- that changing PM
for the third time in 18 months could lead to calls for an
immediate general election, which would be hard to ignore and
would not give Labour the time it needs to recover under a
new leader.
When Would It Happen?
---------------------
4. (C/NF) Before the catastrophic July 23 by-election
defeat, uppermost on MPs, minds was heading home for the
summer recess. The fact that Parliament is now out until
LONDON 00001991 002 OF 005
early October gives Brown some breathing space. On the other
hand, Labour MPs now have a lengthy period to hear out their
constituents' wrath while gnawing over the problem of their
party's collapsing popularity and their leader's seeming
inability to turn its fortunes around. There is rampant
speculation by media and pundits alike that a move against
Brown will occur before the party meets for its annual
conference at the end of September - early September 2006 was
when the plot that eventually forced then-PM Blair to
announce a date for his departure from Downing Street took
place. While that scenario still remains highly unlikely,
another possibility rapidly gaining credence among
Westminster watchers has Labour replacing Brown closer to a
general election in 2009 or 2010, thus giving a new leader a
few months time to settle in and get the party's poll ratings
back up.
The Candidates
--------------
5. (C/NF) In the order of frequency, and Post's assessment
of their credibility as potential successors, below are the
names we are hearing most often from Labour Party contacts
and from UK media observers:
David Miliband
--------------
6. (C/NF) Foreign Secretary David Miliband is a high-flying
young member of the Government whose name inevitably tops
"future leader" lists, with some going as far as to call him
Labour,s "heir apparent." A former Kennedy Scholar,
Miliband at 42 years of age has been at the center of power
for a long time, serving as Blair,s Head of Policy from 1994
to 2001 before winning a seat in Parliament.
7. (C/NF) Miliband's appointment as Foreign Secretary in
June 2007 makes him the second-youngest UK Foreign Secretary
ever. His appointment came as a surprise to many who had
expected Brown to purge the cabinet of so-called "Blairites."
Miliband's fortitude is widely viewed as a testament to how
successfully he has bridged the Blairite/Brownite division
that still hamper the Labour Party. He steers clear of
well-known Blairite rabble rousers Charles Clarke, Alan
Milburn and John Reid, all of whom are suspected of trying to
unseat Brown, and resisted pressure from "Blairites" to stand
against Brown before last year,s leadership handover. More
Machiavellian voices within the Labour Party say that Brown
gave Miliband the high profile job of Foreign Secretary not
as a reward for his loyalty, but as a way of keeping Miliband
removed from domestic politics where he might start to build
up an alternative power base for any future job vacancy.
8. (C/NF) Miliband certainly has the most high-profile
portfolio of all Brown's would-be successors. Added to that,
his Labour credentials are impeccable and his intellect
unquestioned. Some consider Miliband, whose nickname at
Number 10 was "egghead," as too brainy to be leader. Rumor
has it that he has entered into an electoral pact with
Cabinet colleague and another would-be successor James
Purnell (see para. 15), who reportedly told Miliband he would
stand aside in order to give Miliband his full backing.
9. (C/NF) Long viewed as too young or too reticent to
challenge Brown, Miliband may be changing this perception.
An op-ed piece he published in the July 29 Guardian, in which
he laid out his ideas of how Labour can still win the next
election, has triggered wide-spread media speculation that he
is positioning himself at long last as a possible successor.
In the op-ed, Miliband was careful not to criticize Brown -
but neither did he call for party unity behind the PM, and
Miliband is canny enough to know how this omission would be
interpreted. Miliband's Principal Private Secretary told us
July 30 that Downing Street had "been told in advance about
the article" and explained that the op-ed piece reflected
that Miliband is "concerned and doing a lot of thinking about
the party's standing," but said the Foreign Secretary was not
the kind of man to "plot behind someone's back on his own."
The PPS declined to respond when asked if that meant the
Foreign Secretary was the kind of man who might join a
delegation of plotters who ask the Prime Minister to step
down for the good of the party.
Jack Straw
----------
10. (C/NF) Could the party unite around caretaker leader
Jack Straw, a wise old man of the party? In the wake of the
LONDON 00001991 003 OF 005
July 23 by-election meltdown, the media was awash with rumors
that 62-year-old Straw, currently the Justice Secretary, was
being lined up by disgruntled Labour MPs to confront Brown
and force him to quit before taking over as caretaker leader
of the party while a younger replacement is groomed. After
Gordon Brown himself, Straw is the second most senior member
of the Cabinet, having previously served as both Home
Secretary and Foreign Secretary, holding the latter post
during the September 11 terrorist attacks and overseeing the
beginning of military action in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Outwardly an amiable and affable man, Straw is viewed with
less affection by some cabinet colleagues who say they have
been at the receiving end of his whispering campaigns
regarding their abilities. Critics are also quick to note
that he was one of the first of Blair,s closest allies to
jump ship in favor of Gordon Brown when he sensed the
political winds were shifting in Brown,s direction.
11. (C/NF) Over the July 26-27 weekend, Straw interrupted
his U.S. holiday following widespread rumors that his
supporters were collecting names of MPs to force Brown into a
leadership challenge, announcing that he remains "absolutely
convinced" that Brown is "the right man to be leading the
Labour Party." Despite his public endorsement of the PM, No
10 advisors are reportedly enraged by the actions of Straw,s
supporters who they suspect of organizing a coup, with or
without Straw's active participation.
Ed Balls
--------
12. (C/NF) Super bright, relatively young, Ed Balls, now
Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families, has
seen his star rise and fall in recent years but remains a
credible front-runner to succeed Brown. Since becoming an MP
in 2005, he has enjoyed a meteoric political rise into the
Cabinet in only 3 years, not least because of his close
friendship with Brown. Brown plucked Balls out of his job as
an economist at the Financial Times and installed him as a
senior advisor in 1994. Balls became Brown,s most trusted
lieutenant at the Treasury, where he was unofficially known
as the Deputy Chancellor., He continues to remain
Brown,s closest confidante, and it is an open secret
according to Labour party contacts that Balls is Brown,s
choice as his successor - a charge Balls vehemently denies.
He is married to another Labour high-flying minister, Yvette
Cooper.
13. (C/NF) While his financial credentials and close
relationship to Brown weigh in his favor, Balls has performed
badly as Schools Secretary and is accused of shirking
responsibility for the failings of his department (the most
recent blow to his reputation was a delay in reporting
standardized test scores to UK schoolchildren, which Balls at
first publicly minimized then belatedly apologized for).
Critics point out that since coming out from the shadows and
entering the public arena, Balls has shown himself to be less
than suited to the top job: his public speaking is derided
as "dull," his slightly awkward manner as "charmless," and he
has many enemies within the party, precisely because of his
relationship with the PM. Party insiders accuse him of
cowardice because he tells Brown what he thinks Brown wants
to hear. It is this close relationship that may make a
leadership challenge difficult for Balls, since of all the
would-be successors, Balls will face the harshest criticism
if he turns on his mentor. On the other hand, in the
unlikely event that Brown steps aside voluntarily, Balls
might very well catapult to the top of the possible
successors.
Harriet Harman
--------------
14. (C/NF) Deputy Leader Harriet Harman, the only woman
mentioned as a possible successor, is a relative policy light
weight but an adept inter-party operator. A Brownite, she
has reportedly been discreetly attempting to gauge how much
support she has among Parliamentary colleagues ever since
Brown's star started to wane earlier this year. Harman faces
a rough ride with most of the UK media, especially the more
widely read tabloids who criticize her aggressive championing
of women,s rights and say that she is obsessed with
political correctness. On July 29 Harman had to publicly
deny reports that she told her aides, "This is my moment (to
rule)," following the July 23 by-election disaster. She has
recently begun to speak on the need for the party to
underscore its commitment to equality and fairness, which may
be a sign of her reaching out to the party's anti-Blairite,
LONDON 00001991 004 OF 005
left wing.
James Purnell
-------------
15. (C/NF) Work and Pensions Secretary James Purnell is
another strong candidate, although he is often described as
Labour,s "next leader but one." Like many of the other
contenders, 38-year-old Purnell was one of Blair,s closest
advisers at Number Ten before entering Parliament in 2001.
Purnell is already a darling of the UK media, having taken on
Britain,s so-called "benefit cheats" by announcing plans for
the long-term unemployed to retrain and take on work.
16. (C/NF) Purnell,s political radar is finely honed and
colleagues describe him as astute and able. He went to work
for Blair when Blair was a relatively unknown MP in the late
1980s; now, after just a year in the cabinet, Purnell has
gained a reputation for handling difficult briefs with
aplomb, although he is sometimes criticized for coming across
as smug. Purnell may have support within Parliament, but he
lacks a strong constituency base outside Westminster -
crucial for any successful party leader. Because Purnell was
"parachuted" into a safe parliamentary seat, he has no local
ties and therefore limited local backing; and because he is
not from a trade union background, he also can,t count on
the support of union leaders, who aren't impressed with his
planned social security cuts.
Alan Johnson
------------
17. (C/NF) For many in the Labour Party, Health Secretary
Alan Johnson pushes all the right personal buttons. Born
into poverty, orphaned, and married with two kids by the age
of 18, Johnson went on to become the boss of one of the UK,s
biggest trade unions - the Communication Workers Union -
where he worked his way up from postman to union baron.
Johnson, who has a reputation as an inclusive and collegiate
boss and is most often described as "amiable," is happy to
let junior ministers in his department shine rather than
taking their ideas or their limelight - but it is this lack
of killer instinct that, commentators note, make Johnson more
suitable to serve as a deputy prime minister, rather than for
the top job itself in which he has shown remarkably little
interest.
Andy Burnham
------------
18. (C/NF) On paper, Secretary of State for Culture, Media
and Sport Andy Burnham,s rise through the party mirrors that
of James Purnell. At 38 years old, Burnham has only been an
MP since 2001, following a career as a special advisor to PM
Tony Blair. He is also another "Blairite" who, like
Miliband, successfully survived the cull when Brown became
PM. Burnham is a dark horse favorite among Labour members.
The Cambridge-educated father-of-three has a common touch his
rivals envy and is married to his university sweetheart,
Dutch-born Marie-France.
Jon Cruddas
-----------
19. (C/NF) MP for Dagenham Jon Crudas is a wild card.
Although not well known outside the party, he fought a
brilliant campaign in last year,s Labour deputy leader
contest, eventually losing out to Harriet Harman, but not
before winning the crucial backing of some of the country,s
biggest trade unions as well as the endorsement of Labour,s
"Tribune" magazine. Cruddas, elected to Parliament in 2001,
has already shown himself to be a highly astute and wily
politician. Prior to becoming an MP, Cruddas was one of
Blair,s closest advisors, working as his deputy political
secretary at Downing Street where he was responsible for the
Government,s relations with the trade unions. On becoming
an MP, Cruddas cleverly began to disassociate himself from
Blair, rebelling against the Government on key issues,
opposing the Government's initiatives to pay for university
education, more rights for asylum seekers, and the renewal of
the UK Trident nuclear submarine system. He has described
himself as "mistaken" over his decision to vote for British
participation in the 2003 Iraq conflict. One of Cruddas,
biggest assets is his wife, fellow party activist Anna Healy,
who has worked for many of Labour,s best known cabinet
ministers in recent years. However, Cruddas - who is
believed to have turned down ministerial roles from both
LONDON 00001991 005 OF 005
Blair and Brown - may find that his lack of previous any
ministerial experience counts against him.
John Hutton
-----------
20. (C/NF) 53-year-old Business Secretary John Hutton was
until recently seen as another strong contender - until he
upset the powerful and influential trade unions by arguing
earlier this year that the UK should "celebrate the fact that
people can be enormously wealthy in this country." The
unions were further infuriated when Hutton said the
Government had reached "the end of the era" on considering
new regulations, although this sentiment has earned Hutton
the respect of the business community, who see him as a key
ally. The unions now say there has been a complete breakdown
of trust, and have called on Hutton to be removed from his
post in any Brown government reshuffle (widely expected in
September as part of the Prime Minister's effort to
re-energize his political standing). These requests put
Prime Minister Brown in a difficult position - he would look
weak were he to move Hutton; the answer may be to move him to
another cabinet spot, such as the next Defense Secretary.
21. (C/NF) While union fury won't particularly bother
Hutton, who has always been to the right of the Labour Party
and one of Tony Blair,s closest allies, a lack of union
support would stop any leadership challenge he might be
considering. Hutton has told us in confidence that he is fed
up with government work and considering standing down at the
next election to go into the private sector.
Comment
-------
22. (C/NF) Given the improbability that Brown will step down
voluntarily, the chances of any one of this group of would-be
successors, or any dark horses that might emerge, taking over
before the scheduled election in 2010 depends on one of them
challenging Brown openly for the party leadership. So far,
none of them have been willing to wield the knife, most
likely afraid that such a move would cause a party split that
would in the end be an even greater fiasco for Labour. We
don't see a clear tipping point on the horizon - but given
Brown's abysmal track record over the last year, that day
could come when Labour MPs return from vacations in late
August/early September.
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